Global Context
World demographics are rapidly changing. According to UN forecasts, by 2050 the global elderly population will reach 2.1 billion, up from 727 million in 2020. That's more than a twofold increase in 30 years. In economically developed countries, this process is especially accelerated. By 2040, for instance, one in three residents in Japan will be over 65 years old. By 2060, Europe is projected to have an elderly population comprising 30% of its total residents. Such shifts necessitate infrastructure adaptation, and senior homes and medical complexes are emerging as key growth points in the real estate sector. Demographic trends indicate an inevitable demand, and informed investors who are attuned to global shifts are already beginning to assess the potential of this avenue.
Retirement Homes: statistics and forecasts
According to studies conducted by the World Health Organization, by 2050, the elderly will account for about 16% of the global population, equating to roughly 2 billion people. This increase will lead to a heightened demand for retirement homes and accompanying medical services. In the US, for instance, the demand for retirement homes is anticipated to grow by 40% by 2030. In Europe, especially in Germany, there's an expected rise in demand by 25% by 2040. In the Asia-Pacific region, considering its rapidly aging population, an additional 15 million spots are forecasted to be needed by 2050. These figures underscore not just the growing need for elder care but also investment opportunities in this sector.
Medical Complexes: an integral part of the future
Given the increasing life expectancy and advancements in medical technology, the need for quality medical services is continually on the rise. According to the World Health Organization forecasts, global healthcare spending could reach $18 trillion by 2040. Additionally, by 2035, there's an anticipated requirement for about 15 million more hospital beds worldwide. The situation is particularly acute in Asia: for instance, China plans to build an additional 30,000 medical institutions by 2030. Medical complexes, including hospitals, clinics, and diagnostic centers, are becoming key investment assets. They not only ensure medical safety but also provide a steady income for investors due to high occupancy rates and consistent demand for medical services.
Investing in the future
Demographic trends point to an inevitable rise in demand for elderly care homes and medical facilities. Investors are actively responding to these changes, recognizing the potential of this market. According to the Global Property Guide, global investments in elderly care homes reached $25 billion in 2022, an 18% increase compared to 2020. Moreover, analysts at Morgan Stanley forecast a 23% growth in investments into medical complexes by 2025. North America and Europe are expected to become key regions for investment due to the anticipated surge in the elderly population. It's noted that investments in this sector promise a steady return of 6-8% annually, making them attractive for long-term commitments.
Conclusion
Demographic shifts set new demands and unveil new opportunities in the real estate sector. The impact of population aging positions elderly care homes and medical complexes as some of the most promising investment targets for the coming decades.
